Advancements in AI have enabled predictive models that translate large volumes of match and player data into estimates of how specific tactical changes—like a formation shift, a substitution, or a change in pressing intensity—affect the team's chances of scoring, conceding, and ultimately winning. These models combine event and tracking data, player performance metrics, and contextual variables (scoreline, minute, opponent strength) to calculate the marginal impact of a change on win probability. For coaches, that means:
- Evidence-based substitution choices: AI can rank potential substitutes by the expected increase (or decrease) in win probability given the current state of play, helping prioritize who to bring on and when.
- Scenario testing in planning sessions: Before matches, coaches can simulate alternative game plans and see projected outcomes against particular opponents or styles, allowing preparation of contingencies.
- Situation-aware recommendations: In-game systems can factor time remaining and risk tolerance (e.g., protect a lead vs. chase a goal) so recommendations align with tactical objectives.
- Women’s game specificity: Models tailored to women’s football account for league- and sex-specific patterns (e.g., different substitution effects, tempo, set-piece success rates), producing more accurate and relevant guidance than models trained only on men’s data.
These decision-support tools do not replace coaching judgment but provide quantified, situational evidence that sharpens choice under time pressure and uncertainty (see Procter et al., 2021; Fernández & Bornn, 2020).